A recent analysis by Industrial Economics and Knowledge (IEK) of
Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), a government-sponsored
researcher, says that a free trade agreement (FTA) between China and
South Korea may gravely impact Taiwan's manufacturing industry in 3-5
years totaling some NT$600 billion (US$20 billion) in output, coupled
with exports to shrink over NT$300 billion (US$10 billion).
In
contrast South Korea will benefit from the FTA, with GDP growth of 1.76%
in addition to estimated rise of 2.95% in imports and 2.18% in exports.
Taiwan's industries to be impacted by such FTA include LCD panels,
electronic & optical items, petrochemicals, machine tools, steel
& iron, textiles etc., particularly LCD panels and polarizers that
are Taiwan's major exports to China.
Taiwan and S. Korea are
China's two major suppliers of LCD panels and polarizing plates, with
the former taking a 31% of China's LCD panel market and 33% of its
polarizing plate market, and S. Korea's corresponding percentages being
36% and 25%, respectively.
Taiwan's LCD panels and parts
industry hire over 100,000 workers, generating products of NT$1.48
trillion (US$49.33 billion) yearly, accounting for 8.2% of the island's
total manufacturing output value.
The statistics released by
the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) show that Taiwan exports to
China US$15.4 billion worth of LCD panels and US$1.2 billion worth of
plates yearly. Currently China imposes 5% tariff on imported LCD panels
and 8% on polarizing plates. A Sino-S. Korea FTA, to be inked
reportedly at the end of 2014, looks certainly to work against Taiwan in
the Chinese market.
IEK suggests that Taiwan should focus on
exploring the Asian market as the region is becoming economically
important. Today Taiwan's exports to ASEAN (Association of Southeast
Asian Nations) account for 17% of that to its top-10 export outlets. IEK
believes the impact from the Sino-S. Korea FTA may be offset by
Taiwan's raising exports to ASEAN by 5%.
IEK urges the
government to resume as soon as possible the commodity trade talks with
China and continue to try to join regional economic blocs.
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Source: http://en.ofweek.com/news/Sino-S-Korea-FTA-May-Impact-Taiwan-s-Manufacturing-Industry-by-NT-600-Billion-IEK-17220
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